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Tuesday, 23 June 2015

转载 Fitch 保持负面看法



Pressure builds on APAC sovereigns: Fitch
23 JUNE 2015 @ 3:22 PM BY RUPA DAMODARAN

KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Ratings said pressure is building on emerging Asian sovereign credit profiles, reiterating Malaysia and Mongolia are on negative outlook. In its new report it said sovereigns are seeing the effect on growth, external finances, and public finances from a combination of weaker commodity prices, the drag from a run-up in private-sector leverage, and anticipation of higher US interest rates. The report, titled "Asia-Pacific Sovereign Credit Overview June 2015" provides summary credit views on all 18 Fitch-rated sovereigns in the region. ”Two of 10 Emerging Asian sovereigns – Malaysia and Mongolia – are on negative outlook, with none on positive outlook. “ It is due to come up with its latest sovereign report on Malaysia soon. Sovereigns across the region are seeing pressures build on growth, external finances, and public finances from a combination of weaker commodity prices, the drag from a run-up in private-sector leverage, and anticipation of higher US interest rates later in 2015. On Malaysia, it said its ‘A-’ rating with a “negative” outlook reflects pressure on the sovereign’s credit profile. It attributed it to an ongoing leveraging-up of the economy, particularly in the broader public sector and households, and weakening macro fundamentals due to a widening savings investment gap. “But the rating is balanced by reasonably strong growth rates and an external solvency position that is still strong,” it remarked. Fitch said Malaysia’s high dependence on commodities remains an inherent structural weakness of the credit. On the recent implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), it said the move to introduce the consumption tax could be supportive of fiscal finances. “On its own, it is unlikely to achieve the targeted deficit reduction without the government making further spending cuts.” The economy grew by 5.6 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by strong domestic demand, as households frontloaded their expenditure as a pre-GST move. The sovereign rating agency, which has dual headquarters in London and New York, highlighted contingent and off-balance sheet liabilities of the government as “a weakness in the broader public sector’s finances”. Explicit federal government guaranteed debt at the end of 2014 stood at 16 per cent of GDP, up from 15.4 per cent a year ago. On its list of positive sensitivities, Fitch acknowledged greater confidence in the authorities’ commitment to containing direct and indirect public indebtedness. As for the negative sensitivities, it highlighted the sustained “twin” fiscal and external deficits, where failure to consolidate the public finances leads to the emergence of a structural current account deficit The other negative is a shock to interest rates or employment which can affect households’ debt servicing capacity or trigger a need for sovereign support to the banking system. It also warned that slips to the government’s fiscal targets and the lack of progress on budgetary reform as another negative.Selanjutnya di : http://www.nst.com.my/node/89451?m=1

2 comments:

  1. 大哥,这篇文章已经被确定移除咯~

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    1. 是的。上篇被移除了。无效。
      下篇NST还没被移除。可供参考。

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